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Re: HYB: 'A roll of the dice' augmented

From: StorYlade@aol.com

Sharon or anyone else that is statistically gifted,
Although I managed the basic math classes to graduate college, I didn't take
statistics.  I am math challenged.  I've read that the chances of getting a
winner, a significantly improved iris in "normal" TB hybridizing (pink x pink,
etc.) are about 1 in 300-1,000, depending on how "modern" the parents are.

For fun, someone take my blue bearded blue line and say my goal is to have a
reblooming blue bearded blue with the form of Silverado (simply the one that
came to mind--not in the cross).


Iris 1 (strong rebloom) x Iris 2 (warm climate rebloom & strong beard color,
with tailored form)
Iris 1 (same) x Iris 3 (a few warm climate rebloomers in heritage, has thrown
blue bearded seedlings & has very modern form)

How many times would I, theoretically, have to "roll the dice" to reach this
breeding goal? How many miracles do I need here?  The percentages on this one
might put some things into perspective.  


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