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Re: HYB: Rolling the dice

From: Gerry Snyder <gcsnyd@loop.com>

Sharon McAllister wrote:
> ....
> Let's not get bogged down in advanced statistics.  In plain English, if the
> overall success rate in carefully planned crosses is 1 in 1000 [a figure
> I've heard before] then a hybridizer who raises 1000 seedlings has a 50/50
> chance of attaining success....


I don't think it's quite that bad.

The probability of any individual seedling failing to meet the criteria is .999,
so the probability of a thousand seedlings all failing is .999 raised to the
1000th power, which seems to come out to .368 .

Therefore the chance of success is .632 if 1000 seedlings are grown.

I think the 50/50 point is reached at 693 seedlings.

-Gerry, a better mathematician than gardener.
mailto:gcsnyd@loop.com    AIS Region 15
Warm, winterless Los Angeles
President of San Fernando Valley Iris Society
My work?  Helping generate data for http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/galileo

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