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Re: HYB: Rolling the Dice

From: "Jan Clark" <janclarx@hotmail.com>

Sharon wrote:
>In short, we do everything we can to influence the odds in our favor. > 
I believe these practices have led us to an excessively optimistic 
>estimate of the overall probability of success for any one seedling. 

Optimism may result from inexperience. The beginner hybridiser may see 
every new flower as being a brilliant success, especially if he/she has 
little to compare with If not too many seedlings are grown, and those 
that do grow are well tended, the result may well be some fine looking 
I beleive that successful smaller hybridisers succeed in the same way 
that animal breeders do. Not so much by growing thousands of crosses and 
discarding those that are no good, but rather by having a very 
discerning eye, both when selecting the parents, and choosing those 
seedlings to keep, backed up with knowledge gleaned by years of 
experience (or through good mentoring). 
I think time spent studying plants, flowers and pedigrees can be put to 
much better use than a knowledge of statistics. 
And for those who love maths, there are much more interesting 
mathematical recreations than statistics.
Jan Clark

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