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Re: HYB: Rolling the Dice


From: Amy Moseley Rupp <amy@ece.utexas.edu>

> seedling failing to meet the criteria is .999" -- because we simply don't
> have the data to support it.   That's why I didn't approach the question in
> terms of statistical probabilities.  All we have is a hybridizers' Rule of
> Thumb -- we're dealing with anecdotal perceptions reported by
> non-statisticians and, to the practicing hybridizer, the 1 in 1,000 figure
> is an instinctive "average".

While it may be true that a hybridizer thinks 1 in 1,000 seedlings is
worth introduction, applying that to statistics is probably irrelevant.
The main reason is that in doing so, you are treating the re-occurrence
of a good seedling as an independent event from the first.  This
is almost never true, because in the hybridizer's favour, hopefully
they have learnt along the way and won't do bad things, will do
good things, etc.  OTOH, the idea of "introduceable" changes as
others have "already done that" and the public's idea of beauty
changes.

So I dunno.

--Amy

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