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HYB: Rolling the Dice

From: Sharon McAllister <73372.1745@compuserve.com>

Amy wrote:

>  While it may be true that a hybridizer thinks 1 in 1,000 seedlings is
>  worth introduction, applying that to statistics is probably irrelevant.
>  The main reason is that in doing so, you are treating the re-occurrence
>  of a good seedling as an independent event from the first.  This
>  is almost never true, because in the hybridizer's favour, hopefully
>  they have learnt along the way and won't do bad things, will do
>  good things, etc.

The key here is that it is collective lessons learned that have improved
the odds to the point that an experienced hybridizer has come to expect 1
in 1,000 to meet the desired criteria -- we're definitely not talking about
a random mating population.  

So try to visualize this experienced hybridizer, using every bit of
accumulated knowledge and wisdom, making a planned cross.   Raising the
seedlings.  Evaluating them.  Within THAT cross, the occurrence of a
seedling with specific traits can be treated as an independent event w.r.t.
sequence.  "Good" is merely a subjective label. 

Sharon McAllister

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