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Re: HYB: Rolling the Dice

From: "Mike Sutton" <suttons@lightspeed.net>

I have to agree with Lloyd.  It seems that 1 in 1000 for a good seedling is
way, way too high.  1 in 100 is more like it.  If there is not a lot of
thought or research put into crosses then maybe 1 in 1000.  An example of a
hybridizer that does very well with her limited crosses is Marky Smith.  She
gets excellent results with a limited amount of space and a limited amount
of crosses.  I have heard that she is probably one of the most thorough
hybridizers.  We here on the other hand have a lot of room for some wild
crosses and the success rate is probably right around 1 in 1000.  For the
researched crosses it's closer to 1 in 100.  Last year I had two crosses
bloom for the first time.  I kept all the seedlings from both crosses
because they were all good to excellent.  One cross produced reblooming SA
with blue, lavender or purple violet standards white or cream falls some
with rims, all had fiery tangerine beards with either spoons or fuzzy horns.
The other cross produced deep purple to black reblooming space agers.  Both
crosses had good branching and bud count and all the plants seemed vigorous.
Mike Sutton, tossing in my two cents worth.
Porterville, CA Average rainfall 11"  summer highs 115 winter lows 25.  Been
a lot colder this year.
-----Original Message-----
From: Sharon McAllister <73372.1745@compuserve.com>
To: Iris Talk Listserver <iris-talk@onelist.com>
Date: Friday, January 15, 1999 9:10 AM
Subject: [iris-talk] HYB: Rolling the Dice

>From: Sharon McAllister <73372.1745@compuserve.com>
>Amy wrote:
>>  While it may be true that a hybridizer thinks 1 in 1,000 seedlings is
>>  worth introduction, applying that to statistics is probably irrelevant.
>>  The main reason is that in doing so, you are treating the re-occurrence
>>  of a good seedling as an independent event from the first.  This
>>  is almost never true, because in the hybridizer's favour, hopefully
>>  they have learnt along the way and won't do bad things, will do
>>  good things, etc.
>The key here is that it is collective lessons learned that have improved
>the odds to the point that an experienced hybridizer has come to expect 1
>in 1,000 to meet the desired criteria -- we're definitely not talking about
>a random mating population.
>So try to visualize this experienced hybridizer, using every bit of
>accumulated knowledge and wisdom, making a planned cross.   Raising the
>seedlings.  Evaluating them.  Within THAT cross, the occurrence of a
>seedling with specific traits can be treated as an independent event w.r.t.
>sequence.  "Good" is merely a subjective label.
>Sharon McAllister
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