Re: HYB: 'A roll of the dice' augmented
- To: i*@onelist.com
- Subject: Re: HYB: 'A roll of the dice' augmented
- From: S*@aol.com
- Date: Mon, 11 Jan 1999 08:42:03 EST
From: StorYlade@aol.com
Sharon or anyone else that is statistically gifted,
Although I managed the basic math classes to graduate college, I didn't take
statistics. I am math challenged. I've read that the chances of getting a
winner, a significantly improved iris in "normal" TB hybridizing (pink x pink,
etc.) are about 1 in 300-1,000, depending on how "modern" the parents are.
For fun, someone take my blue bearded blue line and say my goal is to have a
reblooming blue bearded blue with the form of Silverado (simply the one that
came to mind--not in the cross).
Cross:
Iris 1 (strong rebloom) x Iris 2 (warm climate rebloom & strong beard color,
with tailored form)
X
Iris 1 (same) x Iris 3 (a few warm climate rebloomers in heritage, has thrown
blue bearded seedlings & has very modern form)
How many times would I, theoretically, have to "roll the dice" to reach this
breeding goal? How many miracles do I need here? The percentages on this one
might put some things into perspective.
Betty
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