HYB: Rolling the Dice
- To: Iris Talk Listserver
- Subject: HYB: Rolling the Dice
- From: S* M* <7*@compuserve.com>
- Date: Fri, 15 Jan 1999 12:06:27 -0500
- Content-Disposition: inline
From: Sharon McAllister <73372.1745@compuserve.com>
Amy wrote:
> While it may be true that a hybridizer thinks 1 in 1,000 seedlings is
> worth introduction, applying that to statistics is probably irrelevant.
> The main reason is that in doing so, you are treating the re-occurrence
> of a good seedling as an independent event from the first. This
> is almost never true, because in the hybridizer's favour, hopefully
> they have learnt along the way and won't do bad things, will do
> good things, etc.
The key here is that it is collective lessons learned that have improved
the odds to the point that an experienced hybridizer has come to expect 1
in 1,000 to meet the desired criteria -- we're definitely not talking about
a random mating population.
So try to visualize this experienced hybridizer, using every bit of
accumulated knowledge and wisdom, making a planned cross. Raising the
seedlings. Evaluating them. Within THAT cross, the occurrence of a
seedling with specific traits can be treated as an independent event w.r.t.
sequence. "Good" is merely a subjective label.
Sharon McAllister
73372.1745@compuserve.com
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