HYB: average ugliness

Linda Mann asked:
"I think you said something about the average of seedlings would be worse
than the average of traits of the parents?  Did I understand that
correctly?"

Neil responds:
Yes. you sure did.

"If so, could you elaborate?  I'm not sure I understand.  Or maybe I just
don't want it to be true!"

I don't want it to be true either, but it generally is.  Take heavy substance
for example.  Cross two irises that have exceptional substance.  The seedlings
will range from insipid to quite good, with a rare one or two better than the
parents.  The average of the cross, however, will be lower in substance than
the average of the parents--on the average.  These kinds of statements look at
the past, not predict the future.  For any one event, cross or phenomenon, it
will land wherever it lands.  But a whole bunch of crosses, taken in general,
will look like what I describe, usually.

The problem gets large when  taking substance, form, branching, bud count
*and* color, let alone more abstract qualities such as charm, presence and the
ineffable "I can't afford it but I'm going to buy it anyway" quality that
makes an iris not only good but great.  Each of those taken singly has a
slide-back probability.  Very few out of very many are improvements on all
fronts, all qualities even from the best of parents.....then there are those
wonderful exceptions when almost everything in a cross is a "keeper."

Someone else making the identical cross may toss the whole lot.  The "rule" of
Regression Toward the Mean describes a generality, not predicts a single
event.

I am a solid believer in the intuitive knowing some people develop in breeding
irises.  They just plain make the right crosses, generation after generation.
They, too, make a lot of compost, but the ones on their compost pile look a
whole lot better than the best some of the rest of us ever produce.

It's easy to forget the doggy ones.  The ones that hurt the most are those
that are *almost* good enough--or are wonderful, but look so much like
something Schreiners introduced two years ago that you keep it, maybe even
breed with it, but leave it in the kennel hidden behind some shrub or other.

Hope never fails.  We just keep on raising the next batch of maybes, confident
that if we keep on keepin' on eventually there will be one of those
irresistable, original keepers that everyone who sees it wants it.  We intend
to beat the odds--and rarely do.

This is the best argument I can think of for having about two to four acres of
ground, eleven thousand seedlings a year and a teenager who is willing to
hoe.

Neil Mogensen  z 7 western NC

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