Re: 3 Urgent Reasons to stay off the telephone Jan 1-3

Chicken little was right?

Now wait just a minute.  Two words from the Hitchiker's Guide to the Galaxy
apply here:  "Don't Panic"

Panics and their resulting problems are caused by everybody behaving in
extraordinary ways or by trying to behave in ordinary ways
with unusual timing.   Want to avoid a panic?  Act normal!  If you don't
normally pick up the phone at  midnight every new years day, try to avoid doing
so.  If you don't normally buy a years supply of broccoli every December 31st,
don't do it this year.  If you don't normally carry large amounts of cash,
don't do it just for 1/1.

Here's the real scoop:

What's going to happen on January First is:  Everybody who's heard the phone
system may be in trouble on 1/1 and I do mean Everybody is going to pick up the
phone at 12:01 just to see if its true.  Many of them will hear nothing... No
dial tone, maybe some static...  A few seconds later, they'll all hang up and
everything will start working again.  Everyone at the party will be talking
about how the phone system is broken, when in fact the phone system is working
just fine thank you...  Here's why...

What happens if too many people try to use the phone at the same time?   Each
time someone picks up a phone, the phone system reacts in one of several ways,
that depend on how many other people are making calls at the same time and
where the calls are to and from.  When the system is overloaded, some calls are
delayed.  Some other calls are delayed but are completed, and still others are
delayed and not completed.  Some calls go through just like they always do.

Various parts of the phone system have the capability of a certain number of
connections and no more.  Once that number of connections is made, further
connections are rejected.  The number of connections possible is far lower than
the number of telephones.  The system is designed this way because most phones
are idle most of the time. (except in homes with teenagers)

So when everyone picks up every phone at the same time
- a few will get a dial tone, dial their number and get through, just like
always.

- many people may get a dial tone, dial their number and get a circuit busy
signal. Circuit busy sounds like a faster than usual busy signal. The circuit
busy signal means some part of the phone system that carries more than one call
from point to point is working at its capacity and no more calls can fit
through.

-still more people who pick up the phone will get nothing.  No dial tone.   The
phone company's mechanism that applies the dial tone to phone lines is busy
giving the dial tone to other callers, so you have to wait your turn.    If
this happens to you don't panic, just wait on the line and eventually you'll
get a dial tone or maybe a message to hang up and try again later.

In any case, the sky does not fall, the phone system is not destroyed, and a
few minutes or hours later, everything is back to normal as the usage of the
phone system as a whole and it's users re-establish the usual pattern of
telephone calls, with most phones remaining idle most of the time.

Everyone making calls at once is exactly what happened last winter here in my
town in the Northeastern US.  There was a severe storm, which damaged a few
phone lines.    Nobody went to school or to work except people working for
utility companies.  Everybody in my town, was at home and dialing in to the
internet and calling their relatives to see if they were ok, so the phone
system got really busy that day.  I had to wait at least  a minute for a dial
tone, and I had to redial some calls due to busy circuits, even on local
calls.  Inconvenient? Yes.  A major problem. No.


If the situation on 1/1/2000 gets too bad, the phone co will probably just
start terminating connections that have been in place too long.  I suspect they
don't usually do that, but who knows, maybe that's why some times my internet
connnecton has dropped? (telephone company conspiracy theory # 243a)

If on 1/1, everything is working as usual, without delayed dial tones and
without circuit busy signals, don't worry about it, make your call.  If the
circuits are busy, or you don't get a dial tone right away, reduce your phone
usage and hope everyone else does the same.  If there are delayed dial tones or
circuit busy signals, the phone system is still working and will continue to
work, you'll just have to wait.  If something in the system actually breaks,
rest assured somebody knows about it and is working to fix it.  Just about
everybody involved is "on call" over the 1/1 weekend.

In an emergency try 911 or if that doesn't work try '0' for operator, and if
that doesn't work find a neighbor with a phone and try from there.   I don't
know if the telephone company has a plan in place for handling emergency calls
under overload conditions, but they should and they probably do.

As for getting the service you pay for, phone service is cheap.  a real
bargain.   The reason it's cheap, is that pattern of most phones being unused
most of the time.  If you use your phone a lot, you're being subsidised by a
lot of other phones that are not.  The phone company could design the system to
complete every call, no matter what the load, but the cost would be
phenomenal.  I pay about $25. a month for local service.  I wouldn't want to
pay substantially more for a service that could not possibly be overloaded.
I'd rather wait occasionally and pay less.  It works 99.99% of the time anyway.



Do you have a bank account?  I do.  I have my latest statement, my checkbook a
couple of visa cards and as usual a very small amount of cash.   I expect my
bank will be open on Monday, just like always.   I expect the tellers will be
cheerful the way they usually are.   I expect most people will take checks
after 1/1 just like they usually did before.  If the banking system goes down,
they'll just process the checks a day or so late, just like on a weekend!  Big
deal!

People I do business with also accept my visa cards.  If the systems that
support the cards go down for a while, merchants will do what they usually do
in situations where they can't contact the bank and get out the old hand
operated visa machine.  The only ones who seem not to do this is the grocery
store, and they'll take usually take a check.  If you want to buy something,
retailers will greet you with open arms, visa or mastercard are beside the
point! Nobody's going to want to turn down your business just because a few
automated systems for clearing payments are messed up for a while.  Happens
every December 23-24 during the christmas rush anyway.   Nothing gets lost, and
the books get balanced each month.  If there are reported problems around 1/1,
check your next statement carefully to be sure everybody got paid, and you
didn't end up paying for something twice!  You should be doing that anyway.  I
once found a $125 error and got it credited the next month.  That and one
fraudlent charge were all I've ever found in 20 years, but I still look each
month.

As for computer viruses, use the usual precautions.  Be wary.  Avoid
downloading programs from untrusted sources. Avoid opening attachments to
e-mail from any source that has not taken precautions against macro viruses.
This includes e-mail from your brother, sister, aunt, cousin, college roomate
or best buddy.  If there's a Y2K virus trigger in some program or file you've
downloaded It will probably show up just as well on the 4th as on the 1st.
Most viruses will show up on or after a specific date.  With all the Y2K
testing of systems by companies around the globe, viruses triggered on
1-Jan-2000  would have been found by now.  Have you heard of any?  I haven't,
and while I don't personally keep a close watch, people at my company do.
While there's bound to be some Y2k computer viruses out there, the usual
prudent precautions will probably be enough.  I'm using my computer on 1/1
regardless.

Pat Callahan

P.S.  I'm not riding an airplane, an elevator or the Space Shuttle at midnight
on 1/1, just in case.


Julianne Wiley wrote:

> Dear Friend,
>
> There are three really important reasons for staying off the telephone and
> off the Internet for the first two days of January.  Here's why in a
> nutshell.
>
> 1. There will be unprecedented demand for telecommunications capabilities
> while companies, municipalities, state and federal agencies try to assess
> problems and effect necessary repairs.  A delay in those assessments and
> repairs may cause delays in important services, reopenings, check
> disbursements including payrolls, and even your earnings.
>
> 2. An overloaded telecommunication systems will prevent 911 and other urgent
> calls from going through.  It may be your emergency that cannot be responded
> to while everyone calls Aunt Suzy in Boise, Idaho to wish her a Happy New
> Year.
>
> 3. The Internet is not going to be a particularly friendly place to be
> because of potential computer virus activity.  A few days later will be a
> lot safer and a lot more will be known about the problems and the
> preventions.
>
> Here is how you can do your part to prevent these telecommunication
> overloads that impact YOU directly.
>
> 1. Stay off the telephone (and Internet) except for essential and urgent
> communications for the first two or three days of January.  Wish your
> friends a Happy New Year either BEFORE the 30th, or AFTER the 3rd.
>
> 2. Pass this message along to your friends and associates now while you're
> thinking about it.  Let's get the word to everyone.
>
> Have a safe and telephone free New Year's Eve, and a prosperous 2000!
>
> ps... This was mailed to addresses in my personal address book based on
> prior contact with you.  If you're offended by unsolicited mail, please
> accept my apologies and be assured I have no intention of further missives
> on this topic.
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