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Re: [GWL]: Steve's Depressions a'comin'





> Just a few thoughts on Steve Solomons ideas re oncoming depression etc 
> --- PS isn't it interesting what we end up talking about on GWL
> 
> Steve Solomon wrote:
> > >     Food gardening is what investment gurus call a counter-cyclical 
> > >     activity. ...When times are hard, people distrust the system, seek 
> > >     self-sufficient independence, go back to the land. 
> 
> Funny thing there Steve is I reckon the biggest back to the land movment 
> of the post war era was in the late 60s early 70s (the hippies etc - 
> remeber the commune that Peter Fonda dropps into during his trip across 
> the USA in Easy Rider) a period of real economic boom. 

Not so, there was major economic disruption in 73 and recession for years after. People lost trust in availability of things like gasoline. They bought gold and silver, distrusted paper money.
 
> >This economic boom ain't likely to continue longer. In fact, my analysis 
> >calls for the immediate onset of very hard times. 
> 
> Many differences between global economy now and then including a much 
> closer integration of economies in the world, growth of Europe as a 
> major consumption centre, rapidly expanding wealth in Asia and in 
> particular China, the growth of the Japanese economy even in its current 
> distressed state. A big depression requires pretty much all economies 
> collapsing together - much harder to achieve now me thinks. and the 
> likelihood of what economists call "beggar my neighbour policies" being 
> introduced much less likley.  And believe it or not I think we do have a 
> better idea of how an economy works and we have a better (not perfect 
> but better) idea of how the "economic levers" such as interest rates, 
> exchanges rates etc work.

Hope you're right. We will see, won't we.

> >     Look for your food gardening public to start to increase as soon as 
> >     unemployment does. 
> 
> mmm but foood is much smaller proportion of household expenditure now 
> and those most likley effected by a downturn - the urban poor - probably 
> don't have the resources to actually garden. If I was unemployed I think 
> I would spend time looking for a job rather than growing a few vegies 
> out the back. and peopel also tend to become mobile in downturns  -- ie 
> moving around the countyr looking for a job -- again mitigating against 
> "grow your own"

If I was poor and in a city in the USA I'd be looking for a vacant lot or big back yard behind some neighbour's house to plant some spuds.

> 
> Just some wild thoughts there  --- but you got me on to my topic 
> "economics" -- that's what I do.
> 
> 
> regards to all
> 
> 
> michael elliott
> 
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