Twitter Etc on Gartner Curve

**D* G* <g*@gmail.com>**

I had an interesting conversation the other day with a consulting client
and the topic of how we figure out what and where to focus our attention
over the next little while came up.   One of the interesting resources you
may not be aware of is the Gartner Group and their annual report on the
state of Net developments.  This was (if I remember correctly) their 15th
annual report

You can see the basic outline of how technology develops on a wave curve
right here in the pdf download.  Gartner calls it the “hype cycle” based on
how much hype and time is spent
http://www.gartner.com/resources/169700/169747/gartners_hype_cycle_special__169747.pdf

This pdf describes the curve but it doesn’t give you what tech use is where
on the curve.  You have to dig a bit deeper into their website to get that
(all the links in the report go to pages that ask you to pay for the
individual sector report).   You can also get a fair sampling of the
respective reports by Google titles and searching for analysis and
commentary.

Here are a few tidbits I picked up by reading parts of the reports and some
other analysis.  It’s interesting from a future-publishing point of view and
from the point of view of some garden writers.

This graph from read/write web
http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/gartner_hype_cycle_2009.php  showing
microbloging and social software suites are clearly on the way down will be
of interest to some of you.  Bottom line:  Don’t worry too much about
Twitter and Facebook for the next little while according to Gartner - you
can play with it but it’s due to roll over into another phase (trough phase)
(that’s short form for the early adopters have played with it and won with
it - and the medium to late adopters won’t get much out of it now until
somebody figures out how to integrate it and make good use of it and users
come back.)

Online video is almost to the bottom of the curve and is about to hit bottom
and then start the bounce to full adoption.  Bottom line: It’s time for you
to really learn how to produce pro-level video although video search is in
its infancy and you won’t make much money from them (all problems you’ll
solve I’m sure) :-)   Lots to learn there for sure.

If you’re interested, I’m sure you’ll find some other gems in the report and
in the different  sites around the Net reporting and discussing the impact
of this analysis.

But I thought I’d pass it along for your interest.

Doug

-- 
Doug Green
Editor-in-Chief,
SGF Publishing
http://www.simplegiftsfarm.com
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