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RE: [GWL]: Steve's Depressions a'comin'

Just a few thoughts on Steve Solomons ideas re oncoming depression etc 
--- PS isn't it interesting what we end up talking about on GWL


Steve Solomon wrote:
> >     Food gardening is what investment gurus call a counter-cyclical 
> >     activity. ...When times are hard, people distrust the system, seek 
> >     self-sufficient independence, go back to the land. 

Funny thing there Steve is I reckon the biggest back to the land movment 
of the post war era was in the late 60s early 70s (the hippies etc - 
remeber the commune that Peter Fonda dropps into during his trip across 
the USA in Easy Rider) a period of real economic boom. I think that 
movment was driven by a repulsion by those young people of the 
"excesses" of their parent's generation (the depression generation) and 
relatively full employment at this time (all those Vietnam War fuelled 
budget deficits) provided a "low-risk" environment to conduct their back 
to the land experiments. So correlation between economy and self 
-sufficiency movement is fuzzy at best - culture and social developments 
at least as important.

>This economic boom ain't likely to continue longer. In fact, my analysis 
>calls for the immediate onset of very hard times. 

Many differences between global economy now and then including a much 
closer integration of economies in the world, growth of Europe as a 
major consumption centre, rapidly expanding wealth in Asia and in 
particular China, the growth of the Japanese economy even in its current 
distressed state. A big depression requires pretty much all economies 
collapsing together - much harder to achieve now me thinks. and the 
likelihood of what economists call "beggar my neighbour policies" being 
introduced much less likley.  And believe it or not I think we do have a 
better idea of how an economy works and we have a better (not perfect 
but better) idea of how the "economic levers" such as interest rates, 
exchanges rates etc work.

>     Look for your food gardening public to start to increase as soon as 
>     unemployment does. 

mmm but foood is much smaller proportion of household expenditure now 
and those most likley effected by a downturn - the urban poor - probably 
don't have the resources to actually garden. If I was unemployed I think 
I would spend time looking for a job rather than growing a few vegies 
out the back. and peopel also tend to become mobile in downturns  -- ie 
moving around the countyr looking for a job -- again mitigating against 
"grow your own"


Just some wild thoughts there  --- but you got me on to my topic 
"economics" -- that's what I do.


regards to all


michael elliott

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