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FW: Long-Range Regional Growing Season Projections.

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From: Ed Goist <zenkoan@HOTMAIL.COM>
To: Multiple recipients of list VITICULTURE <VITICULTURE@BOBO.NWS.ORST.EDU>
Subject: Long-Range Regional Growing Season Projections.
Date: Sat, Dec 11, 1999, 11:08 AM


Hi All:

Since things have finally slowed down somewhat in the vineyard & the cellar,
I’ve decided to put together some long-range growing season projections for
some of the growing regions applicable to our group.

These projections are based on long-range forecasts from several sources,
including:  The National Weather Service, The Old Farmer’s Almanac & The
National Climatic Center.

Please note that these are merely projections (and long-range projections at
that).  Also; keep in mind that several factors can cause considerable
variation when it comes to a particular site (These factors include, but are
not limited to: prominent mesoclimatic  & local climatic features [hills,
mountains, large lakes, etc], topography, & of course, the microclimate of
the growing site).

Enough with the disclaimers already, here are the projections:

Region:  Upstate NY (NY & The upper half of PA)
Projected Y2K Growing Season: Apr. 24 – Oct. 12 (172 days)
Average growing season: 160 days
Projected Y2K Heat Summation: 2500 HSU (F)
Average HSU: 2200
Projected Y2K precipitation: 43”
Average Precipitation: 37.5”
Notes:  Mid January low temps might bring some frightening times for growers
of cold sensitive vinifera.  However; on the plus side; April, May, June,
July & August will all be warmer than usual (hence the sizable [13.6%]
increase in overall heat summation).  Precipitation during the growing
season will be fairly average, with the exception of some possible serious
precipitation (as much as 8”) in October.  This could compromise the quality
of late season harvests.  Overall rating: average.

Region:  Greater Ohio Valley (The southern halves of PA, OH, & IN, as well
as all of VA & WV)
Projected Y2K Growing Season: Apr. 7 – Oct. 10 (187 days)
Average growing season: 190 days
Projected Y2K Heat Summation: 3616 HSU (F)
Average HSU: 3398
Projected Y2K precipitation: 36.5”
Average Precipitation: 41”
Notes:  Early January low temps might bring some frightening times for
growers of cold sensitive vinifera.  Warm temps in Feb might promote
dangerous early bud break in some varieties (vinifera very susceptible)
before the season starts.  April will be much warmer than usual, getting the
season off to a good start.  July – Oct will all be warmer than usual & this
should make for some good sugar levels at harvest.  Precipitation during the
season will be less than average.  Overall rating: above average to well
above average.

Region:  The Great Lakes Region (The northern sections of OH, IN, IL, as
well as the southern 1/3 of WI and the southern half of MI.  Also includes
the southern, lake areas of Ontario).
Projected Y2K Growing Season: Apr. 6 – Oct. 6 (183 days)
Average growing season: 172 days
Projected Y2K Heat Summation: 3300 HSU (F)
Average HSU: 2800
Projected Y2K precipitation: 34”
Average Precipitation: 36”
Notes: Like most of the other central & eastern regions, January could be a
real challenge to growers of cold sensitive varieties.  The average temp in
Jan will be ~19F (a good 3F below average).  Bone chilling lows could hit
the region during the period of  Jan 21 –25.  However; if we survive this,
ALL other months of the season will be warmer than usual.  (Note that
projected heat summation is 17.8% higher than usual).  The weather in April
might be particularly beneficial;  a very warm April should add as much as
11 days to the growing season.  On the down side; the region is expected to
get light rain throughout the entire month of October, possibly compromising
the quality of late season harvests.  Overall rating: above average.

Region:  Central Great Plains (MO,  KS, NE, IA, the eastern half of CO & the
southern half of IL).
Projected Y2K Growing Season: Apr. 7 – Oct. 10 (187 days)
Average growing season: 185 days
Projected Y2K Heat Summation: 3638 HSU (F)
Average HSU: 3445
Projected Y2K precipitation: 29”
Average Precipitation: 32.5”
Notes: Record cold is predicted for the period of March 21-31.  This could
serious damage cold sensitive varieties.  On the positive side, once out of
late March, temps will continue to be either average or above average for
the entire growing season.   Moreover; the distribution of precipitation
should be very beneficial to growers, as rain during the growing season will
be 2” below average.  Both September & October should be very good harvest
months with moderate temps & plenty of sunshine.
Overall rating:  above average (as long as the late March frost is
merciful).

Region:  Pacific NW (N. tip of CA, western halves of OR & WA, as well as the
SW Canadian Pac NW).
Projected Y2K Growing Season: May 11 – Nov 7 (171 days)
Average growing season: 174 days
Projected Y2K Heat Summation: 1852 HSU (F)
Average HSU: 2329
Projected Y2K precipitation: 40.5”
Average Precipitation: 38.5”
Notes:  A very cool growing season is projected.  Every month from April
through October is projected to be cooler than normal, (with extremely cool
months in April, May, July & September).  This season-long cool trend could
reduce overall heat summation by as much as 20%.  As a result, late
varieties might have considerable trouble ripening.  Moreover; October
precipitation will be 3” above the average.
Overall rating:  below average to well below average.

Region: Western California.
(Please keep in mind that California is made up of several different growing
regions.  The following is a projection based on the average weather for the
larger “domain” of western CA)
Projected Y2K Growing Season: Mar 19 – Nov 15 (243 days)
Average growing season: 240 days
Projected Y2K Heat Summation: 3297 HSU (F)
Average HSU: 3423
Projected Y2K precipitation: 15”
Average Precipitation: 17.3”
Notes:  A dryer than usual dormant period (Dec – Feb), coupled with a dryer
than usual March means that young vines should be given vigorous (more than
usual) irrigation.  Summer temperatures should be normal and sunshine should
be maximized throughout the entire growing season in the entire state.
September, October & November should be drier than usual, possibly making
for very favorable harvest conditions.  All indicators look exceptional.
Also; note that the slight variance (~ 5% lower) from normal heat summation
means that cool climate varieties [like Pinot Noir & Riesling] might have
exceptional vintages throughout the favorable growing pockets of the state.
Overall rating: Very good to exceptional.

Finally; if I have left anyone's region out let me know.  I would be happy
to prepare a projection for any of the other US regions not listed above.

Hope This Helps:
Ed Goist,
Youngstown, OH

(P.S.:  Remember; these are only long-range projections! Please, become
neither overly concerned, nor overly joyful by them.)

The Viticulture FAQ & Glossary: http://www.itsmysite.com/vitfaq/
************************************************************
"Wine is sunlight, held together by water..."
        -Louis Pasteur

Give me Silence, Water, Hope
Give me Struggle, Iron, Volcanos.
        -Pablo Neruda

"The Sun, with all those planets revolving around it and depending on it,
can still ripen a bunch of grapes as if it had nothing else in the universe
to do."
        -Galileo
************************************************************

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