Re:HYB: double duh - probabilities

Thanks Neil.  I was "stuck" on figuring out pairing possibilities,
because I was thinking in terms of true tetraploids, not these silly
amphidiploids, assuming that there were only four combinations, instead
of 6!

Everytime I re-read TWOI, I get a little farther in all these things,
and I think I never was able to figure out Figure 5, p 398, before.  It
looks like a 4 x 4, normal tetraploid Punnett square (I think...??), but
each of the two sides lumps together four of the combinations (since the
letters for the genetic makeup are the same) into two.

Thanks again, Neil.  Let's hope I can remember it this time.

So, if I finally understand this part, we can make an educated guess at
the range of probabilities from the Table (Table 1, p. 395), by using
the 'random' column maximum and minimum.

But the 'selective' (true) maximum and minimum values may be different
for every combination of parents.

Ugh!!  Comes back to what more than one wise, experienced hybridizer has
told me (and keep telling me) - with TBs, just about anything can happen
in any cross.  Why I focus mostly on things other than color, just
trying to keep the possibilities for a lot of colors mixed up as much as
possible by avoiding line bred selfs.

I guess the good news is that the true probability might be higher than
calculated.  And, to be superoptimistic, one ticket may win the lottery,
even though the probability is very low..

Linda Mann east Tennessee USA zone 7/8
East Tennessee Iris Society <http://www.korrnet.org/etis>
American Iris Society web site <http://www.irises.org>
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