TB: speculation on future awards
- Subject: [iris] TB: speculation on future awards
- From: "Neil A Mogensen" n*@charter.net
- Date: Tue, 9 Sep 2003 13:56:44 -0400
- List-archive: <http://www.hort.net/lists/iris/> (Web Archive)
Linda Mann's looking at the pattern varieties take in getting to the top spots
in Wisters and Dykes is interesting. There's a pattern in the past few years
that is worth noting for those that like to predict the future. Let's take a
look:
2003--
(Award) (votes) (Variety) (Originator)
DM 82 Celebration Song Schreiner
RU-1 58 Fancy Woman Keppel
RU-2 47 Clarence Zurbrigg
Wister 68 Crowned Heads Keppel
RU-1 51 Diabolique Schreiner
RU-2 49 Tom Johnson Black
AM 130 Sea Power Keppel
AM 109 Uncle Charlie D. Spoon
AM 106 Penny Lane Lauer
AM 104 Starship Enterprise Schreiner
2002
DM 78 Mesmerizer Byers
RU-1 68 Celebration Song Schreiner ---> DM 2003
RU-2 45 Fancy Woman Keppel ---> Dykes RU-1 2003
Wister 59 Local Color Keppel
RU-1 50 Jurassic Park Lauer
RU-2 49 Gypsy Romance Schreiner
AM 124 World Premier Schreiner
AM 118 Midnight Oil Keppel
AM 114 Splashacata Tasco
2001
DM 85 Yaquina Blue Schreiner
RU-1 69 Mesmerizer Byers ---> DM 2002
RU-2 54 Celebration Song Schreiner ---> RU-1 2002, DM
2003
Wister 75 Fancy Woman Keppel ---> Dykes RU-2 2002, RU-1
2003
RU-1 54 Pond Lily E. Jones
RU-2 51 Spirit World Keppel
AM 138 Diabolique Schreiner
AM 118 Crowned Heads Keppel ----> Wister 2003
AM 109 Owyhee Desert Pinkston
2000
DM 90 Stairway to Heaven Lauer
RU-1 82 Yaquina Blue Schreiner ---> DM 2001
RU-2 68 Acoma Magee
Wister 90 Mesmerizer Byers ---> Dykes RU-1 2001,
DM 2002
RU-1 82 Celebration Song Schreiner ---> Dykes RU-2
2001, DM 2003
RU-2 62 Clarence Zurbrigg
(next) 53 Spirit World Keppel ---> Wister RU-2
2001
AM 142 Local Color Keppel
AM 123 Springtown Schreiner
AM 111 Tom Johnson Black ---> Wister RU-2 '03,
Dm RU-2
1999
DM 113 Hello Darkness Schreiner
RU-1 73 Acoma Magee ---> Dykes RU-2
2000
RU-2 72 Yaquina Blue Schreiner ---> Dykes RU-1
2000, DM 2001
Wister 90 Stairway to Heaven Lauer ---> DM 2000
RU-1 88 Boogie Woogie . Nichols
RU-2 78 Rhonda Fleming Mullin
(next)
70 Mesmerizer . Byers ---> Wister 2000,
Dm RU-1 2001, DM '02
64 Celebration Song Schreiner's --> Wist. RU-1
'00, Dm RU-2 '01,
Dm RU-1 '02, DM '03
AM 181 Fancy Woman Keppel ---> Wister '01, Dm RU-2
'02, RU-1 '03
AM 129 Pond Lily E. Jones
AM 123 Jurassic Park Lauer
It looks as though the best predictor of Wister and Dykes awards is *not* the
high vote getters of the AM. As Walter Moores pointed out a year or more ago,
the best predictor for the Dykes is the Wister and its RU's. For example, if
I were placing bets on 2004 DM I would say FANCY WOMAN. If Fancy Woman does
not get the Dykes in 2004 it drops out of the list of eligible varieties. The
period of eligiblity is three years after winning the Wister (the special
award for its class). TB's are not the only Special Award winners eligible
for the DM, but in the American society we treat the award as a TB-only award.
It isn't, actually.
Clarence has run through its three-year eligibility, so it is out. The list
of the next most likely include Crowned Heads, Diabolique, Tom Johnson, Local
Color, Jurassic Park, Gypsy Romance, Pond Lily and Spirit World.
I understand that Crowned Heads did not put on its normal stellar performance
at the Convention this year which will cost it some potential votes.
Diabolique is a curiously unstable performer in my experience. In some areas
it gets raves, in others, dead silence. Tom Johnson has a lot going for it
but is radically upstaged by the new Paul Black, which may cost it votes. The
others may have peaked in their curve of probable vote getters.
That leaves FANCY WOMAN as a very likely Dykes for 2004, with WORLD PREMIER a
likely winner of the Wister with SPLASHACATA close behind it. Those would be
the likely candidates for the DM in 2005. For 2005 an almost sure bet for
Wister is SEA POWER, which puts it in the running for the Dykes in 2006 with
either WORLD PREMIER or SPLASHACATA as hot and close contenders.
If I were a commercial grower I would be sure to maximize my stock of any or
all of these!
Anyone want to place bets? (Just kidding!)
Neil Mogensen zone 7 near Asheville in western NC
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