Re: Mather's Book

Harold,

Very interesting numbers below.  I have always felt that AG's sibbed (not
self) seed have about at the most a 5%  of potential to hit 700+lbs.  And
only one seed the 567.5 mombert has surpassed this and is crowned the king
of AG seed for its high rate of 700+.   But it seems we don't see more than
10 to 12 good 700+ pumpkins at  from a Good background AG.  Out of
approx.300 seeds that not real impressive.  Of course environment and
growers cultural practices could behindering the reading and success rate.
One problem is  there  is no fixed number of good seed  one could bank on.
Not like you can count cards in Blackjack.  But I sometimes feel that I
should  attempt to do that.  That after say 4% of good seed has been found
by planting and making it to the scales WE then take  serious notice and go
after that particular cross.  I have always felt that going back after the
1% remaining good seed wasn't the best way to go.   I would appreciate your
thoughts on this.

Some laymen like myself feel that the success of the 567.5 may have been
from some sort of Hybrid vigor.  This seed was white.  I have seen two
white seed parents create a tan.  I have seen two tan seed parents create a
white and sometimes you can get some that look like a combo of both tan
white.  Most growers feel that seed color doesn't tell us much.  But don't
know for sure.  If a good lineage AG seed doesn't cut it the first few
attempts we are quick to  look elsewhere.  Mainly because you put in a
great deal of work on a plant and miss its hard to risk that time following
up on a good cross that has let you down.  But if the ratio is as tough as
it appears to hit a 700+ the 5-10 growers that do plant a certain cross
and  miss seems like a drop in the bucket.  But this is our practice  and
very hard to overcome.  Are we destined to only have these kind of odds or
how can we improve our bets....brock


Harold Eddleman Ph.D. wrote:

> Dear Pumpkins List
> (I am also sending this to my family so they can see what I am doing.)
>
>   A book which I have mentioned to Nic is Kenneth Mather's 1938, 1951,
> The measurement of Linkage in Heredity. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
> It is a tiny 4 x 6.5 inches, 149 pages, book. I have had it for 40 years
> and and have not read very much of it because some of it is heavy on
> formulas which I did not need prior to AG genetics.
>   It may have some value to those hoping to find heavy pumpkins genes
> linked to visible traits. I will try to get some of it digested into my
> pk.htm site this month.
>   I can easily discuss the table I used the most here. However, Big AGs
> are more complex than this simple case.
>   The question is:  How many plants must I grow to get one plant which
> has the desired qualities. The book gives numbers for .9, .95, .98, etc.
>   Here I will give the numbers only for 0.9 (90%).
>
> Expected   Number of plants which must be grown to have
> Fraction   90% probability of getting one of the desired plants
>   1/2      3.3 (grow 4 plants)
>   1/4      8.0 (grow 8 plants)
>   1/8      17.2 (grow 18 plants)
>   1/16     35.7 (grow 36 plants)
>   1/32     72.5 (grow 73 plants)
>   1/64     146.2 (grow 147 plants)
>
> Some people on this list have said, "Not all the seeds from a cross are
> equal in genetic capacity."
>   Sadly, we have no way to know what ratio of the seeds in a pumpkin
> have the capacity to grow Record size pumpkins.
>
> It is Blessed to Give in the AG business:
>   Let us suppose that your name is Blue and in 1997 you made a cross and
> the fruit is known as 888 Blue 1997 and that it had hundreds of seeds
> and you gave seeds freely to as many good growers as you could find. You
> and your friends grew 64 seeds in 1998 and you have learned the results
> of every one of those plants and you have decided 2 of those plants were
> wonderful and you are going to do everything possible to get one of
> those "Silver Bullets" growing in your garden during 1999.
>   The Question is: How many seeds do you have to plant to have a 90%
> chance of growing one "Silver Bullet". Recall that in 1998, 2 out of 64
> were "Silver Bullets". The expected fraction is 2/64 = 1/32. Looking at
> the above table you see that you have to plant 73 seeds to have a 90%
> chance of planting a Silver Bullet.
>   If you want a 99% chance of planting a Silver Bullet you should grow
> 145 plants. I got the 145 came from a part of the table not printed
> above. I will try to get the whole table in my site soon.
>   Here is another example from everyday life. Lots of families would
> like to have at least one boy. The expected fraction is 1/2 becaause
> about 1/2 of babies are boys. To be 90% sure of a boy plan on having 3.3
> kids, to be 95% sure have 4.3 kids, for 99% probability plan on 6.6
> childern.
>   The book has two chapters on linkage in Humans. This comes close to
> the situation in AG because in both species matings are somewhat random.
> I will try to digest those chapters and get something on my site during
> 1999. I would do it right away, but it will not be easy to simplify and
> the results are for a single gene such as linkage of brown eyes with
> brown hair. We do not yet know many genes in AG and trying to link those
> to weight (which depends on many genes) is pretty hopeless and
> genetically unlikely.
> --
> Harold Eddleman Ph.D. Microbiologist.       i*@disknet.com
> Location: Palmyra IN USA; 36 kilometers west of Louisville, Kentucky
> http://www.disknet.com/indiana_biolab/pk.htm
>
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