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RE: [GWL]: Predictions

I'm sitting here trying to come up with a bunch of predictions and am most
interested in the fact that I'm not able to pop them up, one after another.
So much has happened so quickly in the past ten years, most of which I could
not have predicted, I'm wary of sticking my nose out; though that has never
stopped me in the past.  I will predict up to five years in the future,
because ten years is too long to even begin to comprehend the
possibilitiels.

I predict that within five years, all garden centers and home centers, and
yes even the mega stores that are grocery stores and department stores and
hardware stores all in one will have two groups of products to sell.  They
will continue to have key products available at the appropriate time on
their shelves and in their plant areas.  Then they will be selling all the
products their manufactures and growers produce for which there is no room
on the shelves.  There will be kiosks in key spots in the stores and plant
areas.  You can buy any of the 30 pesticide  items that Bonide stocks on the
shelf and then from the kiosk buy any of the other 120 products Bonide
manufactures, but for which there is no room on the shelf.  You will be able
to buy any of the 25 Monrovia shrubs in stock in the plant area or you will
go to the kiosk and order any of the other 250 shrubs that Monrovia grows.
The same for watering products from Nelson, and fertilizer products from
Schultz, and hand tools from Union Tool Company, and seeds from Burpee, or
annuals from whomever.  The products sold via the kiosk will be shipped by
the manufacturer, the grower, or in some cases a third party distributor.
The product or plant may be shipped to the home or to the retailer for pick
up. The retail store will get a smaller percentage of the sale, but will
still make money from the sale.
Before Andy gets a chance to jump in and say "it has already happened", he
is right.  Office Depot now does this in many of their retail stores and by
the end of next year it will be standard in all of their stores.  This idea
works well in the lawn and garden industry because virtually everything sold
in a garden center is shippable, except maybe riding lawn mowers and 3 cubic
foot bales of peat moss.

Prediction one and a half - Using that same kiosk, the shoppers will be able
to go to the kiosk and get all the information they need about any product
sold in the store.  They will also be able to get the operating instructions
or how to use the product correctly.  That will be downloadable and will
accompany their purchase when they go home.  There will be a problem solver
in the kiosk that helps the customer determine which product they need in
the first place.  All that information will also be available on the home
computer.

The interesting question arising from these predictions is --- in five
years, will all the folks on this list, answering gardening questions, be
getting as many requests for information when that kiosk system is in place?
The answer I believe is yes, but the nature of the questions will be
different.

End of pontification

Jeff Ball

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