RE: HYB: how many seedlings?

My opinion in "keeping the stongest 20 %" might be good if one is limited on
space.  I think it would also depend on the cross as well as I will example
below.  Keep in mind that color, flower form, rhizome placement and production
(not necessarily vigor related), branching, stalk strength, plant stature,
foliage qualities ect. have no known (let alone proven) correlation to vigor.
As has been previously discussed there is no known correlation between vigor
and ease of germination.  If there was a correlation there would be no need to
even discuss it and we would all be deluged with numerous cultivars of
exceptional quality all vying for the Dykes Medal.  But the truth is that many
of the Dykes winner are just not that at all and would not have been chosen in
many a garden's top 20% .  Examples that might not have made it through such a
culling might have been 'Edith Wolford' and 'Hello Darkness' which have never
done very well for me and I can't imagine they would have made it as seedlings
unless their sibs were equally as poor in growth in my climate and others.

I can say with some certainty that if I had only kept the top 20% I would have
thrown out some REAL GEMS in my seedling patch that I intend to use in further
breeding work. They were not on first sight in the top 20% in size, vigor or
even bloom time.

Such seedlings were..

My first red with no carotenoid present from 'Frank Adams' crosses which did
not
     bloom for two years.  Now that is establised in it's permanent home after
being
     moved around it is doing quite well and has proven to be quite fertile.
My first and second true orange dot plicata from different crosses, both of
which did
     not bloom the first year with their sibs.
My only orange Zone 5 rebloomer.  It is a BB moderate to borderline vigor but
bloomed
     every Fall for 3 years in Indianapolis without fail and contiues to do so
now in
     Raleigh, NC.
Numerous small Border Beardeds and MTB's from TB breeding that managed to
     squeeze their dwarfing genes out of the genetic tangle.  One so small at
6-7" from a
     'Frank Adams' cross that its sibs crowded it out and had to move it after
I noticed
     its sole maiden blossom reaching up between a sib's encroaching foliage.

I'm sure many others on this list that grow all of their seedlings have
similar stories.

The top 20% theory might best not even be applied to the Arilbeds or other
bearded and beardless groups as it is hard enough to get good seed and then
evaluate what survives.  It would be safe to say that a top 20% rule might
only apply to a cross that you would expect to be exceptional where two
exceptional plants were crossed and one is not expecting a lot of variation.
Recessive genetic characteristics such as plicatas or lycopene pinks or more
difficult characteristics like candelabra branching might require a top 40% or
60% for example.   It would depend on the hybridizer's goals, expectations and
why the cross was made to start with.




Original message:---------

Betty, I think you've asked how many seedlings from a cross people plant
and how they decide which ones.

This is the first year I may have to make that decision in a few
crosses.  Jim Ennenga tells me he picks the "strongest" 20% or so of a
cross to plant and <throws the rest away>.  By strongest, he seems to
mean biggest, hence most likely to bloom first.  His thinking is that
only the biggest ones will bloom in a reasonable length of time.

Not sure I have the courage to throw them away, but may hold the others
over in a big pot till I see how the biggest ones behave.

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