Re: 1213.7 lbs
Joe-
I've crunched the #'s many times... ( i bet others
have too) as you can guess each time through
with a different method gives you a different
number...
with a linear plot you end up with a new world record
each year, which is nice.
theoretically speaking the higher order spline
you use the more accurate you become.
one of more interesting (to me) was to when
i just stuck with the linear plots but varied
how many years I went back...
this created a larger variance in the outcome
than i would have thought.
The method I like best, is a little complicated,
It involves using the a lot of data points. Many
from each year- to get a distribution for each
year. then you compare the distributions from
year to year. then you use that to estimate
next years distribution and it's high end.
It like taking the top 100 or more each
each year and comparing them to all the
other years. You can see how the average
grows but also use that estimate next years
numbers.
It is fun to play with the #'s and look
the trends. especially in seed lines.
but in all reality -it probability and static's-
and anyone's good guess is just as good as any
one else's.
1213.7 sound good to me !
Gordon
Maple Valley WA
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